Back
again, after a long work-induced break, this blog is hopefully once again up
and running with more frequent posts than recently. 2007 has got off to a
flying start for many of us, and wintery landscapes are finally reminding us
Northern Europeans that it is in fact, still Winter - and what a great time to
pull ourselves up in our armchairs with a hot cup of something and muse about
the year ahead of us. What will be the big changes coming to our attention in
2007, how are our lives changing, or are they in fact changing at all?
Having
delved into extensive research into trends and various fields related to my
work, I feel like I have finally come up to the surface to breathe again after
having been immersed in fact-finding for so long. The notion of mapping trends
is actually very difficult and what I struggled with most was the notion that
every day seemed to bring something new to my findings, sometimes even turning
things completely upside down from how I had been looking at them before. One
thing is of course finding examples of what is going on, but more importantly,
the challenge is to try to make connections between different things and even
attempt to explain why they are happening.
The Big Surprise for 2007
In my mind the most
revolutionising development of 2007 is likely to come from a very unexpected
quarter: Africa. Despite the philanthropic
efforts of Microsoft and others, computers have failed to penetrate much beyond
the urban middle class in east Africa. Laptops are
targeted by thieves, desktops are stymied by power cuts and a lack of
broadband access. This in itself makes the concept of OLPC *One Laptop Per
Child, an effort by Nicholas Negroponte to get computers into the developing
world potentially a
red herring, but may in fact turn out to be the killer of products like LeapPad
for kids, where the laptop has more mileage and is a better investment than the
closed electronic platforms of children’s learning toys, but who knows?
Speculation
aside, the truth is that mobile-phone operators in Africa are bullish.
Except in restrictive Ethiopia and Eritrea, the market has
taken off in the region, and 2007 will see the first high-speed access Internet
access through mobiles. Some companies, such as South Africa’s Breakdesign, a
developer of software for phones, predict that mobiles will become east Africa’s primary portal
to the Internet.
The
humble SMS will have an even greater effect on east Africa in 2007.
Innovative use of SMS will allow people to move money by text message, to
receive information on, say, maize prices, along with tips on planting, and to
receive medical advice, a particular benefit to those living with tuberculosis
or AIDS. (Source: the Economist, December 2006, ‘The World in 2007’.)
Connected Communities
Another
big one, which is not really new for 2007, but growing explosively, is the
phenomenon of connected communities. Over 1 billion people are now online as of
June 2006 *see Internet World Stats and the biggest growth in
internet usage is coming from Africa, followed by the Middle East, Latin America and Asia. The sites receiving the biggest
traffic are sites involving direct human interaction – sites like MySpace,
Orkut, Bebo, but also blogging, Youtube and the like. People connect around
contexts, things they have in common and their desire for knowledge, for
communication and a sense of belonging – coupled with virtual and physical
communities beginning to blend into one through the advent of internet-ready
phones, Google maps and GPS, makes it possible to connect to people you have
met online on Mesh Tennis offline – for a great game. The passion is what unites
you. The internet is the enabler. Niches find their audiences, talented
moviemakers their fans, bloggers their readers, geographically widely spread
apart, but huge in numbers. Connected communities make it possible for word to
travel fast, for good news or bad news to spread quickly, for brands to emerge
one day and almost be buried the next, as employees equipped with cameraphones
decide to publicise their gripe about a topic, as happened with the Starbucks
employees highlighting the rat infestation at a Starbucks premise on Youtube.
The transparency can become tyranny at the flick of a switch.
The rise of Homegrown Media
Sitcoms are in
terminal decline and the only growth area is still reality TV - which,
interestingly, shares a low-cost aesthetic and people-like us authenticity
with much of web video. Indeed, the only thing keeping TV programmers off the
sills of their skyscrapers is that the source of their income, marketers, have
not embraced web video as quickly as have their viewers.
In 2007 TV will have
its first ‘music moment’ - the realisation that a core audience (the
18-34-year old male) has moved on-line, possibly for good. The rise of Youtube
and an army of other free video-hosting services has created a phenomenon of
short user-created videos. These clips are creating a new kind of watching
experience, on more about ‘snacking’ than half-hour sitcoms. They spread
virally, by e-mail and blogs, rather than via billboards and prime-time
scheduling. And most worryingly for the networks, they are not accompanied by
30 second advertising spots, or any other advertising at all. This is
television, but not as we’ve known it.
Few
even care to comment on the absurdity of traditional TV business models (to say
nothing of the risible model of interruption-based TV advertising itself;
annoying 90% of the audience for the sake of reaching 10% who might care about
your product) makes sense only when you’ve got a captive audience, which is no
longer true.
If
anyone figures out a way to combine Google-style advertising matched to the content
people choose to watch with the undeniable power of video commercials, then
the house of cards that is the economics of the broadcast TV industry will come
crashing down. (Source: The Economist: The World in 2007)
This time
last year, Mashable was reporting on del.icio.us clones - where are they now? Jots? SpinSpy?
These sites have died a slow death, since the low of cost of hosting means they
can stay online forever, despite having no users. Jookster
and Wink were
forced to change their models, meanwhile, to include video and social
networking. Likewise, all the unnecessary RSS readers either gave up or got
consumed by a larger entity this year: Mashable expects the same to happen in
the video space, with lots of consolidation in 2007.
YouTube
Becomes Bigger Than MySpace
This is a
ridiculous prediction to make, since YouTube is trailing MySpace by a long way,
and MySpace Video is doing pretty well. It’s also extremely hard to measure
this stuff, since all the stat providers disagree (in fact, Alexa actually
reported that YouTube
had overtaken MySpace earlier this year, despite the fact that it’s still a
fraction of the size by most measures - as mentioned previously, Alexa
has some problems). Another issue is that YouTube involves spending a few
minutes on each page, while MySpace users can rack up at least 20 pageviews in
5 minutes. So this is a wild card to some extent.
For more
of brilliant insights from Mashup follow the link:Mashable Predictions
Fuel for thought
To move out
from the online domain – the other really big thing is energy. The world uses a cubic mile of oil a
year, costing almost $2 trillion. Oil and cars are the world’s biggest and
most entrenched industries. Yet, an inexorable half-century transition beyond
oil has begun, squeezing oil between efficient use and alternative supplies. In
2007 Toyota will emerge as the leader in super-efficient plug-in
hybrid cars: electric for short commutes, petrol-hybrid for long trips. This
could double the already doubled petrol efficiency of a Prius. Next, make that
car ultra light and its petrol efficiency redoubles. Biofuel it and you
quadruple petrol efficiency again, to 30 times today’s norm. Oil prices will
drop - but efficiency will remain cheaper still. Getting of oil- abating 42% of
global carbon-dioxide emissions will be led by business for profit. That
transition already shapes competitive strategy. Wal-Mart’s new heavy trucks
will be a quarter more efficient in 2007 than in 2006.
By 2015 they will be
twice as efficient, saving over $300m a year. Next will come trebled
efficiency, which yields a 60% internal rate of return. In 2007 Boeing’s
20%-more-efficient but same price 787 will take flight. Ford’s new chief
executive, Alan Mulally, whose efficiency-based Boeing strategy is beating
Airbus, will bring to Ford Boeing’s focus on ultralight materials (the 787 is
50% advanced composites), systems integration and breakthrough design.
In Washington, DC, a surprisingly strong voice in 2007
for getting off oil will be the world’s biggest buyer both of oil and of renewable
energy - the Pentagon. The risk and cost of vulnerable fuel convoys, easy prey
to roadside bombs, will persuade military leaders that only super-efficient
platforms dragging dramatically slimmer fuel logistics tails, or none, can
fight persistent, dispersed, affordable wars. This strategic shift will not
just save hundreds of lives and tens of billions of dollars a year. It will also
speed key technologies, like ultralight materials, that can triple the
efficiency of civilian cars, trucks and planes - just as military R&D
created the Internet, GPS, the jet and chip industries. Thus the Pentagon will
start to lead America, and the world, off oil so nobody need
fight over it.
But even if work
begins in all these directions, as well as improving energy efficiency in
industry and homes and the use of various small-scale alternative sources of
energy, we cannot forget that the economies of developing countries will
continue to grow, meaning there will not be any reduction in energy prices in
the near and medium term. The year ahead will show which strategy the developed
countries are going to choose to work their way out of their looming energy crisis.
- Re-industrialisation based on a ‘new competitiveness’
deriving from an energy-efficient advantage over the industry of China and other developing countries.
- New colonial wars - this time for energy resources
- New leadership: abandonment of the model of
increasing material consumption in favour of improvement in the quality of
life, and increase in the intellectual component of the consumer basket.
Strategically
speaking only the third way holds promise for the future. (Source: the
Economist: The World in 2007)
More Predictions?
This is
by no means an exhaustive list. What do you think are going to be the big ones
for 2007? Add your comments below and let’s see how close to the mark we get a
year from now.